Iran's Top Officials Warn Khamenei: Nuclear Talks or Regime Collapse

In a rare and coordinated intervention, top Iranian officials have reportedly warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the Islamic Republic faces potential collapse if it does not engage in negotiations with the United States regarding its nuclear program. According to a report in The New York Times, these officials cited the growing threat of military action by the US and Israel, coupled with the risk of massive internal unrest, as existential dangers to the regime.

Key Points:

• Unusual Intervention: The warning came during a meeting last month attended by the heads of Iran's judiciary and parliament, who collectively pressured Khamenei to accept talks with Washington, even direct ones.
• Military Threat: Officials emphasized the serious possibility of military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran's nuclear sites, particularly Natanz and Fordow, should negotiations fail.
• Economic and Social Instability: Iran's already fragile economy, exacerbated by potential war, could trigger widespread domestic unrest, posing a significant threat to the regime's stability.
• Khamenei's Conditions: While Khamenei has relented and agreed to talks, he has set conditions, including restricting discussions on Iran's missile program, which he considers vital for defense. However, he is open to discussing the nuclear program's monitoring and uranium enrichment reduction.
• Regional Policies on the Table: Surprisingly, Iran is reportedly willing to discuss its regional policies and support for proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat and current visiting fellow at Princeton University, noted that Khamenei's shift reflects his core principle of prioritizing the regime's preservation above all else.

Talks between the US and Iran are scheduled to take place in Oman, with Iranian officials expressing hope for a "genuine chance" at reaching an accord, provided there are no further threats or intimidation from the American side.