Myanmar Quake Amplifies Turmoil: Junta's Power Play Diminishes Hopes for Peace

A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake has struck Myanmar, exacerbating the already dire situation caused by a brutal civil war. With millions displaced and the economy in ruins, the quake has further complicated the path to peace, according to experts.

Key Points:

• Devastating Impact: The earthquake has caused widespread destruction, with potential fatalities exceeding 10,000 and economic losses surpassing the nation's annual GDP.
• Junta's Response: In a surprising move, the ruling junta declared a state of emergency and appealed for international aid, a stark contrast to their response to Cyclone Nargis in 2008.
• Slim Peace Prospects: Despite hopes that the disaster might lead to peace talks, analysts believe that the deep-seated divisions between the junta and resistance forces make a lasting ceasefire unlikely.
• Strategic Maneuvering: Experts suggest the junta may exploit the quake's aftermath to weaken resistance groups and consolidate power.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Myanmar was already facing a severe political and humanitarian crisis following the 2021 military coup. The earthquake is expected to worsen the situation, with limited access to essential services and widespread violence.

While a temporary ceasefire has been declared in some regions to facilitate humanitarian efforts, skepticism remains about its longevity. Analysts like Angshuman Choudhury believe any ceasefire will be fragile and the junta will prioritize suppressing resistance movements.

"The military junta has already shown through its continuing airstrikes that it will prioritize defeating the resistance over disaster relief," said Scott Marciel, former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar.

The earthquake has also prompted diplomatic engagement, with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing seeking support from neighboring countries like China and India. However, experts warn that this may be a ploy to legitimize the junta's rule and pave the way for a flawed election in December.

Joshua Kurlantzick from the Council on Foreign Relations suggests the quake response will likely fuel public anger towards the military, further destabilizing the country.

The international community faces a dilemma: provide humanitarian aid to alleviate suffering while avoiding legitimizing the junta's authority. The path forward for Myanmar remains uncertain, with the earthquake adding another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.