Iran Eyes Interim Nuclear Deal with U.S. to Avert Escalation

In a high-stakes move to de-escalate tensions and prevent potential military action, Iran is reportedly considering proposing an interim nuclear agreement with the United States. This proposal comes as President Trump has set a tight two-month deadline for negotiating a new comprehensive nuclear deal, while simultaneously bolstering U.S. military presence in the Middle East.

Sources familiar with the matter reveal that Iranian officials believe reaching a complete and technically complex agreement within Trump's timeframe is unrealistic. They view an interim agreement as a way to gain more time and avoid a dangerous escalation of the situation.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, suggests that the Iranians recognize the unlikelihood of a sustainable deal within Trump's deadline, making an interim agreement a necessary step towards a final resolution.

Key elements of a possible interim agreement could include:

• Suspension of Uranium Enrichment: Iran would partially halt its uranium enrichment activities.
• Dilution of Enriched Uranium Stockpile: Iran would dilute its existing 60% enriched uranium stockpile.
• Enhanced UN Inspections: Iran would grant UN inspectors increased access to its nuclear facilities.

While experts acknowledge that these measures would only marginally extend Iran's timeline for developing a nuclear weapon, they could significantly contribute to building trust and fostering a more conducive environment for comprehensive negotiations.

Furthermore, an interim agreement might involve extending the sunset clause of the 2015 nuclear deal, which is scheduled to expire in October. This mechanism triggers UN Security Council sanctions against Iran if it violates the agreement.

However, a significant sticking point remains: Iran is expected to demand the suspension of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, which has severely impacted Iran's economy. It is uncertain whether Trump would be willing to concede on this front.

The Trump administration has already imposed two new rounds of sanctions this week on Iranian entities and individuals linked to the nuclear program and oil industry, signaling a continued hardline stance.

Critics within the Trump administration may view Iran's proposal with skepticism, suspecting that it is a tactic to buy time without genuinely dismantling its nuclear program.

The proposal comes ahead of talks between White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman. While the U.S. insists on direct negotiations, Iran maintains that the talks will be mediated by Omani officials.

Trump has stated that his primary demand is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, emphasizing that military action, potentially led by Israel, remains an option if diplomacy fails.

On the other hand, Ali Shamkhani, a foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has warned that continued military threats against Iran could lead to "deterrent measures," including expelling International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and potentially relocating enriched materials to unmonitored locations.

The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining whether an interim agreement can be reached, potentially averting a dangerous escalation and paving the way for a more comprehensive and lasting resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue.