Wednesday Football Tips: Garnas Looks Overpriced at 9/1 - Eliteserien Value Bet

Rosenborg v Lillestrom - Wednesday 21 August, 18:00 - Live on Betfair Live Video

Initially, the focus was on card markets in the Copa Sudamericana, particularly the clash between Fortaleza and Rosario. This Brazil-Argentina rivalry often sees a flurry of yellow cards, as evidenced by the eight cautions in last week's first leg. The 1-1 draw suggests a competitive second leg, further boosted by the presence of card-happy referee Esteban Ostojich. However, at the time of writing, no card markets were available, leaving the search for value bets elsewhere.

While Champions League qualifiers often provide tight matches, the sole Eliteserien fixture on Wednesday promises a more open affair. The league's high-scoring nature, with over 2.5 goals landing in 58% of matches this season, is particularly relevant for this match. Both teams are amongst the weakest defensively, with Lillestrom conceding 33 goals in 18 games (the second-worst record) and Rosenborg only marginally better. Notably, eight of Lillestrom's last nine matches and ten of Rosenborg's last 12 saw both teams finding the net.

One noteworthy factor is the absence of fans due to a protest in the first leg, which saw a barrage of tennis balls, smoke bombs, and even fishcakes thrown onto the pitch, forcing the match to be abandoned. Nonetheless, the combination of both teams' scoring history and the league's high-scoring nature makes "both teams to score" a solid foundation for a Bet Builder.

Moving on to the goalscorer selection, Espen Garnas of Lillestrom stands out at a generous price. The centre-back is a prominent threat from set-pieces, having scored three goals in 12 league starts this season. Lillestrom, known for their aggressive approach, are fifth in the league for fouls committed and corners won, averaging 5.5 corners per game, making them a prolific set-piece team in one of Europe's best leagues for corner numbers.

With Rosenborg struggling defensively, Garnas' odds of scoring at 9/1 appear overly generous. While yesterday's goalscorer pick, Patrick Berg, failed to deliver but did manage three shots, indicating the validity of the approach, Garnas' threat from set-pieces combined with Lillestrom's set-piece dominance make him a compelling value bet for Wednesday's match.