The Chicago Fire face a daunting task on Thursday as they take on Mexican giants Toluca in the Leagues Cup, needing a win to stay alive in the competition.
A Test of Fire
The Fire enter the match on the back of a disappointing 2-1 loss to Sporting Kansas City in their opening group game. They couldn't hold onto an early lead, a familiar scenario for a side that has struggled to win close encounters this year.
They've lost by a single goal on eight occasions in 2024, including four games where they surrendered a 1-0 advantage. This inconsistency will be a major concern against a Toluca side who are renowned for their resilience and attacking prowess.
Toluca's Dominant Start
Toluca have started their Liga MX season in impressive fashion, remaining undefeated after four matches. They are a clinical side, currently boasting the joint-second-best goalscoring record in the Apertura with seven goals.
Renato Paiva's side is on a five-match unbeaten run across all competitions, highlighting their current form and confidence. They have also been defensively solid, keeping three clean sheets in those five matches.
Historical Advantage
Toluca boasts a strong record in the Leagues Cup, having never lost to an MLS side in normal time. They have always advanced from the group stage, even reaching the round of 16 last year. They have a particularly strong record against MLS sides in the competition, scoring multiple goals in every game.
Team News and Potential Lineups
Toluca will be without Juan Escobar, who is still recovering from an undisclosed injury. Renato Paiva has rotated his squad in the Liga MX, with Claudio Baeza, Ernesto Vega, and Maximiliano Araujo joining the starting lineup in recent matches.
Goalkeeper Tiago Volpi will be a key figure for Toluca, having been a prolific goalscorer in last year's Leagues Cup.
The Chicago Fire will be missing Carlos Teran and Federico Navarro through leg injuries, while Chase Gasper is recovering from a hamstring strain. Andrew Gutman made a welcome return from injury in their last game, but Xherdan Shaqiri remains sidelined.
Prediction
The Fire face a difficult challenge against a strong and experienced Toluca side. Toluca's consistent form and dominance in the Leagues Cup make them the favourites. It's likely to be a tough match for Chicago, who will need to find a way to tighten up defensively and rediscover their attacking spark if they want to pull off an upset.
Toluca 2-0 Chicago Fire
Data Analysis:
Sports Mole's data analysis suggests a Toluca win is the most likely outcome, with a 65.61% probability. The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 2-1, with a 9.76% probability.