Canada's medal count at the upcoming Paris Olympics is predicted to be lower than the previous two Summer Games, according to a global data analytics company.
Nielsen's Gracenote, renowned for its statistical analysis across various sports, has forecast that Canada will bring home 21 medals: seven gold, nine silver, and five bronze. This would be three fewer medals than Canada secured at Tokyo 2020, where the team achieved seven gold, seven silver, and 10 bronze.
Should Gracenote's prediction prove accurate, it would mark Canada's lowest medal count at a Summer Olympics since London 2012, where they secured 18 medals. Gracenote's projections have a history of accuracy. They correctly predicted the top three medal-winning countries in Tokyo 2020, and in Beijing 2022, they accurately forecasted Norway's record-breaking medal haul at the Winter Olympics. This will be their seventh Olympic forecast.
Simon Gleave, head of Gracenote's sports analysis, attributes the prediction to the performance data collected from key global and continental competitions since the last Olympics. "Athletics and swimming look like the key sports for Canada this time around, potentially delivering more than half of the medals," Gleave remarked to CTV News. However, he highlighted that based on current rankings, Canada might miss the podium in certain events, including fencing, diving, and track cycling.
"We've got five Canadian performances in track cycling, which are between fourth and eighth [place]. So, those are performances which you would regard as being a medal opportunity, but they're falling outside," Gleave explained.
The United States, with a projected haul of 112 medals â including 39 gold â is considered the favourite to top the medal table. If this prediction materialises, it would be the eighth consecutive time the US has achieved the highest overall medal count at the Summer Games.
France, the host nation, is expected to experience its most successful Olympic Games in 124 years. They are projected to triple their gold medal count from Tokyo and double their overall medal haul, ultimately securing 60 medals.
"Once a country gets to host the Games, they obviously want to do as well as possible and so there is increased investment into sports in order to produce a better medal total than they would normally get," Gleave stated. However, his data suggests that home advantage doesn't deter other nations from winning medals but instead might increase the medal colour, such as gold instead of silver.
Despite the potential for a lower medal count, Canada's Summer Games squad is strong, boasting reigning world champions and numerous medal contenders among its 337-strong team.
Adam van Koeverden, a four-time Olympic medalist in sprint kayaking who will not be competing in the upcoming Games, emphasised the excitement surrounding Team Canada. "There are 337 legends in the making with Team Canada. I am just so excited to watch every single second of the action," he expressed on The Vassy Kapelos Show. "The diversity of our team, in terms of what they do and who they are during the year, is just so interesting to me."
Canadian swimming sensation Summer McIntosh, a 17-year-old world record holder in the 400-metre individual medley, will compete in her second Olympics. Other Canadian athletes to watch include Maggie Mac Neil, reigning Olympic champion in the 100-metre butterfly; sprinter Andre De Grasse, Canada's most decorated male summer Olympian; and Sanoa Dempfle-Olin, who will become Canada's first-ever Olympian in surfing.
The Paris Games are set to commence on Friday, with the opening ceremonies, projected to be the largest in Olympic history, beginning at 1:30 p.m. EDT. The Games will run until August 11th.