Derby Winners at York: Can City of Troy Buck the Trend?
The Juddmonte International at York this Wednesday is set to be a thrilling encounter, with Derby winner City of Troy looking to become the first Epsom Classic victor to triumph in the prestigious Group 1 race since 2007. However, the historical data paints a picture of caution, with Derby winners having a mixed record in this prestigious contest.
Since 1990, only seven Derby winners have lined up for the Juddmonte International, resulting in a win rate of just 43%. While City of Troy may be considered an above-average Derby winner, with victories in both the Epsom Classic and Eclipse Stakes, so too was Golden Horn in 2015. However, his bid for Juddmonte International glory was thwarted by the improbable Arabian Queen, a 50-1 shot who sprang a major upset.
This stunning result serves as a stark reminder that even the most dominant horses can fall prey to the unpredictable nature of racing. It also highlights the inherent risk in running a Derby winner in the Juddmonte International, particularly with such a competitive field this year.
Aidan O'Brien, City of Troy's trainer, has a limited history of running Derby winners at York. Despite saddling ten Epsom Classic victors, Australia, in 2014, was the only one to feature at the Juddmonte International, resulting in a narrow victory.
Looking back at the previous Derby winners who contested the York race, a mixed bag of results emerge.
In 2015, Golden Horn, a Derby and Eclipse winner, finished second to Arabian Queen, a shock result. Despite this setback, Golden Horn went on to win the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc, showcasing his extraordinary talent.
A year earlier, in 2014, Australia, a horse with a similar profile to City of Troy, secured victory, although at odds of 8-13, highlighting his dominance. However, unlike City of Troy, Australia had a more respectable Guineas run, finishing third, indicating a stronger overall performance.
Sea The Stars, the 2009 winner, faced minimal competition, including his own stablemates, and comfortably secured victory at odds of 1-4. However, Mastercraftsman, a dual Group 1 winner, ran a career-best performance, narrowly missing out on victory, beaten by just a length.
Duke of Marmalade, the 2008 winner, triumphed in a field weakened by York being waterlogged, leading to the race being moved to Newmarket.
In 2007, Authorized, another Derby and Eclipse winner, avenged a previous defeat to Notnowcato, winning the race and securing the first Derby victory in the Juddmonte International since 1979.
The 2006 Juddmonte International saw Singspiel, a multiple Group 1 winner, secure victory, with Derby winner Benny The Dip finishing third in a strong field.
Dr Devious, the 2005 Derby winner, ran respectably but finished fourth in a field that included multiple Group 1 winners and a previous Juddmonte International victor.
This analysis of past performances suggests that while Derby winners have a reasonable chance of performing well in the Juddmonte International, the race's competitive nature and unpredictable nature make it a risky proposition.
Whether City of Troy can buck the trend and become the first Derby winner to triumph since 2007 remains to be seen. The Juddmonte International promises to be a captivating spectacle, with the fate of the Derby winner hanging in the balance.
