Can Anyone Catch Up? The Race to the World Test Championship Final Heats Up

With the next few months promising a feast of Test cricket, teams are vying for valuable points to secure their place in next year's World Test Championship final. Only 13 of the 27 series in the 2023-25 cycle have been completed, leaving ample opportunity for teams to climb the standings. Here's a look at the current state of play and how the contenders are shaping up.

India

Percentage Points: 68.52

Series Remaining: Bangladesh (2 home Tests), New Zealand (3 home), Australia (5 away)

India currently top the WTC table, having secured 68.52% of the available points (74 out of 108). However, a challenging tour of Australia awaits in November. Before then, they have five home Tests against Bangladesh and New Zealand. To maintain a percentage above 60%, India needs 63 points from their remaining 10 Tests (a win yields 12 points, a draw 4). Five victories and a draw would secure this target, assuming no points are deducted for slow over rates.

Australia

Percentage Points: 62.50

Series Remaining: India (5 home Tests), Sri Lanka (2 away)

Australia is one of only two teams to have played four of their six series (the other being the West Indies). They are sitting comfortably on 62.5%, but their final ranking will be heavily influenced by their home series against India, a team that has bested them in their last four Test series, including two victories in Australia. To finish above 60%, Australia requires 47 more points from their seven remaining Tests, achievable with four wins or three wins and three draws.

New Zealand

Percentage Points: 50.00

Series Remaining: Sri Lanka (2 away Tests), India (3 away), England (3 home)

New Zealand, with three wins and three losses in their six Tests, sit at 50%. They have a lot of ground to cover to reach a final score of 60%. With 96 points available in their eight remaining Tests, they need at least 65. Five victories and a couple of draws would suffice, but given that three of those eight Tests are in India, this seems a daunting task.

Sri Lanka

Percentage Points: 50.00

Series Remaining: England (3 away Tests), New Zealand (2 home), South Africa (2 away), Australia (2 home)

Sri Lanka shares New Zealand's 50% score, but they've played only two of their six series. They have nine more Tests in this cycle and need 70 out of the 108 points available to finish above 60%. This translates to six wins, or five wins and three draws, meaning they cannot afford many dropped points during their three-Test away series in England.

South Africa

Percentage Points: 38.89

Series Remaining: Sri Lanka (2 home Tests), Pakistan (2 home), Bangladesh (2 away)

South Africa and Bangladesh are the two teams participating in the fewest Tests this cycle - 12, compared to England's 22. This makes every match crucial. However, they have only earned 28 points from their six Tests, including 16 from their recent 1-0 series win in the West Indies. To reach 60%, they need 59 more points from their six remaining Tests, requiring five victories. They have four home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, where they must aim for maximum points, before heading to Bangladesh for an away series.

Pakistan

Percentage Points: 36.66

Series Remaining: Bangladesh (2 home Tests), England (3 home), South Africa (2 home), West Indies (2 home)

Similar to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Pakistan has played just two of its six series, both away from home - in Sri Lanka and Australia. This provides an opportunity to leverage home advantage in their remaining series against Bangladesh, England, and the West Indies. Their only remaining away series is in South Africa.

To achieve a 60% score, Pakistan needs 79 points out of a possible 108 from their nine remaining Tests. They can achieve this with six wins and two draws, or seven wins. With seven home games remaining, this appears a plausible equation.

England

Percentage Points: 36.54

Series Remaining: Sri Lanka (3 home Tests), Pakistan (3 away), New Zealand (3 away)

England's 36.54% score is hampered by 19 penalty points deducted for slow over rates. Without these deductions, they would have a much more comfortable 48.72%. Now, they need 102 out of 108 points from their remaining nine Tests to reach 60%. A scenario of eight wins and one draw would yield 100 points. This means they must win every remaining Test in the cycle. Even with six more penalty points, a perfect record would still push them above the 60% threshold.

Bangladesh

Percentage Points: 25.00

Series Remaining: Pakistan (2 away Tests), India (2 away), West Indies (2 away), South Africa (2 home)

Bangladesh has four series remaining, but only one is at home, against South Africa. To finish on 60%, they need 75 out of a possible 96 points from their eight Tests, requiring six wins and a draw.

West Indies

Percentage Points: 18.52

Series Remaining: Bangladesh (2 home Tests), Pakistan (2 away)

The West Indies have already played four series, scoring only 20 points out of 108. Even with victories in their remaining four Tests, their final percentage will only reach 43.59%.

The race for the World Test Championship final is far from over. With a packed schedule of Test matches, several teams still have the chance to make a significant impact on the standings and challenge the frontrunners.