With all 12 teams having completed their first two group stage matches at the 2024 Olympics, Team USA remains firmly on course for a fifth consecutive gold medal in men's basketball.
Led by the star trio of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James, the Americans have secured comfortable victories against Serbia and South Sudan. They will conclude their Group C campaign against Puerto Rico on Saturday, having already secured a place in Tuesday's quarter-finals. Three other contenders - France, Germany, and Canada - are also moving on, but strong teams like Serbia and Australia still have a fight ahead to reach the knockout rounds.
The tournament has witnessed impressive performances from NBA stars outside of Team USA. Victor Wembanyama, the NBA's highly anticipated rookie, has made a significant impact for France, who are aiming for Olympic glory on home soil. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo has delivered impressive numbers for Greece, despite their likely early exit.
Here, our NBA experts offer their insights on the tournament so far, highlighting the biggest surprises and analysing the top players.
1. Team USA's Starting Lineup (and Sixth Man) Should Beâ¦
Kendra Andrews: Curry, James, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, with Durant as the sixth man. Coach Steve Kerr has outlined his intention to continuously adjust the starting lineup based on the opponent. Curry, James, and Davis are likely to be permanent starters, while Booker and Holiday should round out the core group. Holiday's defensive prowess stabilises the team, while Booker provides additional shooting. Durant's incredible form off the bench offers a significant scoring advantage that no other team can match. His role as sixth man also allows him time to recover from his recent calf injury, although his performance so far suggests this may be unnecessary.
Marc J. Spears: I favour Davis in the starting five at centre. He has consistently performed well throughout the tournament, his athleticism and skills are well-suited to international basketball, and he clearly enjoys the challenge. Curry and James are undoubtedly starters, with Booker filling the role of shooter and defender. For Saturday's group stage finale against Puerto Rico, it might be interesting to try Durant in the starting lineup to see how it plays out. He would have been a starter without the calf injury. Then, Anthony Edwards could be considered as a sixth man.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Holiday, Curry, Booker, James, and Davis â with Durant continuing in the sixth-man role. Although Kerr experimented with Jayson Tatum in place of Holiday against South Sudan, Team USA will need Holiday's elite defensive presence to mark the opposing team's best guard. Davis has been a better fit than Joel Embiid in this international style of play, excelling on both ends of the court. The team's best starting five based on talent would include Durant, but his explosive scoring off the bench provides a significant advantage.
Jamal Collier: Curry, James, and Davis, with Durant as the sixth man, should be set. However, I favour the idea of Team USA rotating the final two starting positions based on matchups. Holiday and Derrick White offer versatility and can be deployed against any opponent, with Embiid, Booker, and Tatum all potential candidates for the bench role as the tournament progresses.
Andrew Lopez: Curry, James, and Davis seem like established starters. Durant's continued role as sixth man seems feasible while he recovers from his calf injury. It might appear like a straightforward approach, but it works if Kerr maintains his rotation of the remaining starters depending on the opponent. Holiday's defensive expertise makes him a strong candidate for one of the remaining starting spots. If size is needed, Embiid at centre and Davis at power forward would be the ideal combination. If shooting is the priority, Booker can start, with James sliding up to the power forward position.
2. What Has Been the Biggest Surprise of Group Stage Play So Far?
Youngmisuk: Embiid's struggles and lack of impact. He did not feature against South Sudan and saw limited playing time (11 minutes) against Serbia, contributing only four points and two rebounds. Perhaps Embiid, who was unwell last week and had been hampered by a knee injury during the NBA season, is still not fully recovered. Alternatively, his style of play might not be as well-suited to international basketball as we initially thought. Embiid could still be a factor against a front line of Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert if Team USA were to face France in the knockout stages. However, at this point, Davis and Bam Adebayo have been more effective big men for the Americans.
Spears: I expected France to be much stronger, particularly with Wembanyama, Gobert, and their other NBA players. Their performance against Brazil was unremarkable, and they should have lost to Japan on Tuesday. It's been a disappointing start for the host nation. Friday's Group B clash against Germany will be revealing for the French. Can they perhaps even call Tony Parker out of retirement to play point guard?
Lopez: The close call against Japan, which nearly pulled off the upset of the Olympics on Tuesday. If not for a spectacular four-point play by Matthew Strazel to force overtime, the French squad would have suffered a significant defeat. Les Bleus possess two towering 7-footers in Wembanyama and Gobert, while the tallest player on Japan's team is U.S.-born Josh Hawkinson at 6-foot-10. Japan's leading scorer, Rui Hachimura, spent most of the fourth quarter on the bench after being ejected, and the French team still struggled. Wembanyama took charge in overtime, but it was a near-disaster for a team aiming for Olympic glory on home soil.
Andrews: The respect South Sudan has garnered has been incredibly enjoyable to witness. They almost snatched a victory from Team USA in a pre-Olympic exhibition game and then defeated Puerto Rico to open Group C play, securing a historic first Olympic win. Although the wrong national anthem was played in their opener, fans are now chanting the names of their players throughout the arena. They face Serbia on Saturday with a chance to claim second place in Group C, and still have a shot at advancing as one of the top third-placed teams. Before the Olympics, it was impossible to predict that a team with only recently acquired indoor basketball facilities would attract such global attention.
Collier: It has been unexpectedly exciting to see South Sudan, a nation that achieved independence in 2011, reach this stage and compete. The U.S. team, dominant against Serbia, found themselves in a relatively close battle against South Sudan on Wednesday, adding an element of underdog drama to the group stage. It's also been great to see the role of former NBA star Luol Deng, who serves as president of the country's basketball federation, in South Sudan's rise.
3. Who'll Be the Biggest Threat to Team USA's Gold Medal Quest?
Lopez: Despite the impressive performances of Canada, Germany, and France - the other undefeated teams in group play - it still feels like the only thing that can stop the Americans from winning their fifth consecutive gold medal is themselves. This is one of the deepest and most versatile Team USA squads we've seen. When they are firing on all cylinders, it's hard to find any team at these Olympics capable of stopping them.
Andrews: At times, it seems like they are their own biggest obstacle. There were some incredibly close games during the Americans' pre-tournament exhibitions, and a few subpar stretches in group play have allowed opponents to remain more competitive than they should be. This isn't entirely due to their opponents outplaying them, but rather because the U.S. has occasionally taken their foot off the gas. It hasn't been costly so far, but it could become more problematic in the knockout stage.
Collier: France poses a threat with Wembanyama, and Canada remains a real contender with the duo of Jamal Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The U.S. has been rolling so far, and when playing at their best, no other team seems capable of slowing them down. I expect the U.S. will still face a tough challenge in at least one game during the competition.
Youngmisuk: Yes, France struggled against Japan in Tuesday's overtime thriller. But if the U.S. were to face France in a knockout game in Paris, Wembanyama and Gobert would have the entire country behind them for an upset. Those two can lock down the paint, and if the Americans go cold from the outside, anything could happen. And in FIBA and the Olympics, various other factors, such as officiating, can come into play and work against Team USA.
Spears: Their bus or the subway breaking down on the way to the arena. Canada has the best chance.
4. Which Player Outside of Team USA Has Had the Best Showing?
Collier: Credit to Antetokounmpo, who is once again delivering MVP-worthy performances for Greece, only to be let down by his teammates. Greece is winless in Olympic play so far, but it's not due to a lack of effort from Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 30.5 points and eight rebounds. He carried Greece to earn their place here and took pride in being a flag-bearer for his country at the opening ceremony.
Youngmisuk: With apologies to Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander has guided Canada to a 2-0 start, averaging 18.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, alongside 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks on the defensive end. The Oklahoma City Thunder star is shooting 65% from the field and has led Canada to the quarterfinals despite an undersized front line and Murray's struggles (13 points and a combined 4-for-13 shooting in his first two games).
Andrews: Despite France's struggles against Japan, Wembanyama's impact has been immense. After a quiet performance in regulation, he started overtime against Japan on an 8-0 run, propelling his team to victory. In his first game, against Brazil, he was a dominant force, scoring 19 points - 14 in the first half - with nine rebounds, four steals, and three blocks. Following his impressive rookie season in the NBA, it's clear how his game translates to the international stage. France's integration of Wembanyama has contributed to his impressive start.
Spears: Japan's Yuki Togashi. Facing the Olympics' tallest competitor in Wembanyama, the 5-foot-4 guard and shortest men's basketball player at the competition tossed the ball between the legs of the 7-foot-4 French star for a pass - and it worked. Respect!
Lopez: The usual suspects - Nikola Jokic, Wembanyama, and Antetokounmpo - have been fantastic, but RJ Barrett has truly shone for Canada in their two group stage victories. Barrett is the second-leading scorer at these Summer Games behind Antetokounmpo and has been crucial for Canada's wins against Greece and Australia. He is averaging 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, while hitting 59.3% of his shots.
5. What is the Most Anticipated Game Remaining?
Spears: Saturday's South Sudan-Serbia matchup. While Serbia is undoubtedly the favourite, South Sudan is capable of causing an upset. If South Sudan emerges victorious, it would be a phenomenal achievement for all of Africa, as no African team has reached the final eight in Olympic men's basketball.
Collier: Germany-France on Saturday is a must-see. The 2023 FIBA World Cup winner against the host nation, with both teams posing a genuine threat to win medals and potentially challenge Team USA.
Andrews: Germany-France was already one of the most anticipated contests heading into the Olympics, and it's now the only remaining pool play game between two teams aiming for medals. The fact that both have advanced to the quarterfinals and are fighting for top spot in Group B adds further excitement.
Lopez: The Germany-France clash also holds extra intrigue as the winner will likely avoid Team USA until a potential gold medal game. Germany has recorded comfortable victories in its first two games, but France might have been given a wake-up call by the Japan result. It could be the most exciting game of the group stage.
Youngmisuk: The number of notable NBA players and matchups on the court during the Germany-France encounter will be captivating to watch. How will the German duo of Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner attack France's front line with Wembanyama and Gobert? Can Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner get the better of the French big men down low? One thing is certain: France will need to perform better than they did against Japan.
