Taylor Swift on Course for Historic Fifth VMA: Can Ariana Grande Steal the Show?
Hundreds of Gold Derby users have cast their votes for the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards, taking place on 11 September. As things stand, Taylor Swift appears poised to make history by securing the Video of the Year award for "Fortnight" featuring Post Malone. This would mark her third consecutive win in the category and her fifth overall, an unprecedented feat.
Swift first claimed the coveted prize in 2015 for "Bad Blood" featuring Kendrick Lamar, followed by a second win in 2019 for "You Need to Calm Down". However, the enthusiasm of her fanbase, known as Swifties, has only grown since then, propelling her to consecutive victories with "All Too Well" in 2022 and "Anti-Hero" in 2023. Notably, Swift swept most of her nominations in 2023, taking home nine coveted Moon Person trophies. With the majority of VMA categories determined by fan votes, it's difficult to bet against her.
Currently, Swift and Malone are leading the Video of the Year race with 11/2 odds. Among those backing her are all four Gold Derby Editors who have submitted their predictions, alongside 18 of the Top 24 Users who achieved the highest scores predicting last year's VMAs, and 17 of our All-Star Top 24, boasting the highest combined scores from the last two years' VMA predictions.
However, Ariana Grande remains a strong contender, securing second place with 13/2 odds for her video "We Can't Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)". This marks her fourth nomination in the top category, yet she's yet to win, potentially motivating her fans to rally behind her. Five of our Top Users and seven of our All-Stars are predicting a victory for Grande. While an upset, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Swift's fanbase is fiercely loyal, but Grande's supporters are equally dedicated.
Be sure to submit your own MTV Video Music Award predictions to see how your picks measure up against our odds. Feel free to adjust your predictions until the winners are announced. Download our free and intuitive app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to challenge other music enthusiasts, industry experts, and our editors for the highest prediction accuracy scores. Engage in the lively discussions about the VMAs with Hollywood insiders in our music forums and stay up-to-date with the latest entertainment news on Gold Derby.
