NVIDIA May Slash RTX 50 Output Up to 40% in H1 2026

• Key Takeaways:
• Multiple Asian supply-chain reports say NVIDIA could reduce GeForce RTX 50-series production by roughly 30–40% in the first half of 2026.
• The squeeze is attributed to tight availability of memory components — including GDDR6, GDDR7 and system DRAM — rather than a single part shortage.
• Early supply adjustments may hit midrange Blackwell SKUs such as the RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti 16 GB first; AIC allocation in Mainland China may be rebalanced.

What the reports claim

Two independent industry trackers — Board Channels and Benchlife — and coverage aggregated by Videocardz report that NVIDIA is studying material production cuts for the GeForce RTX 50 family during H1 2026. Board Channels frames the potential reduction as a year‑over‑year decline of about 30–40% compared with H1 2025, though the figure remains unconfirmed by NVIDIA.

These accounts are sourced to regional supply‑chain contacts and component vendors rather than official statements from NVIDIA or its add‑in board (AIB/AIC) partners. That means the scale and geographic scope of any cut could change before formal confirmation.

Which models are most likely to be affected

Benchlife specifically names two midrange Blackwell cards — the GeForce RTX 5070 Ti and the RTX 5060 Ti 16 GB — as potential early targets for supply adjustments. Midrange SKUs often absorb the brunt of allocation shifts because vendors balance inventory across price tiers to match demand.

If the rumored cuts are accurate, high‑end flagship supply may follow different logic depending on demand, pricing and channel contracts.

Why memory shortages matter

Reports point to constrained availability across several memory types: GDDR6, GDDR7 and even motherboard DRAM (DDR4/DDR5). GPU production depends on this ecosystem of components; pressure in one segment can bottleneck board assembly.

Earlier industry notes have already flagged memory tightness, with some motherboard manufacturers delaying plans. That broader context increases the plausibility that NVIDIA could throttle GPU output to avoid inventory imbalances.

Implications for AIC partners and buyers

Board Channels suggests NVIDIA may rebalance supply allocations for AIC partners in Mainland China to better match shifting DIY demand. For consumers, the practical impact would likely be tighter retail availability and potential price pressure on affected midrange models.

System builders and channel partners should monitor formal statements from NVIDIA and their suppliers, and consider ordering strategies if they rely on specific RTX 50 SKUs.

Bottom line

Multiple supply‑chain sources report that NVIDIA could cut RTX 50 production in H1 2026 by as much as 30–40%, primarily due to memory component shortages. The news remains a rumor until NVIDIA or vendors confirm it, but the signal echoes earlier industry warnings about constrained memory supply and reduced motherboard plans.