Intel's Shock 10% Surge: Is an Apple Deal Inevitable?

• Intel's stock surged by 10% following a high-profile analyst's prediction of a renewed partnership with Apple.
• The potential deal would see Intel supplying Apple's lowest-end M-series processors as early as the second quarter of 2027.
• This move is seen as a major validation for Intel's foundry services and a significant boost for US-based chip manufacturing.
• Despite the news, industry experts believe the immediate financial impact on current supplier TSMC will be minimal.

Intel Stock Holds Gains on Apple Supply Deal Forecast

Intel's stock (INTC) maintained most of a dramatic 10% surge on Monday after a bombshell prediction from a top analyst suggested the chip giant is on the verge of rekindling its partnership with Apple. The spike occurred Friday after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Intel is positioned to become a key supplier for Apple by 2027.

The market's strong reaction underscores the significance of a potential reunion between the two tech titans. While the stock saw a slight dip of 1.76% in morning trading Monday, it successfully held onto the majority of its impressive gains, signaling strong investor confidence in the rumor.

The Details of the Predicted Partnership

According to Kuo's industry sources, the deal would involve Intel manufacturing Apple's lowest-end M-series processor. He noted in a post on X that "visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly."

The timeline for this collaboration is tentatively set for the second or third quarter of 2027. However, this is contingent on Intel releasing its process design kit (PDK) in early 2026. The PDK serves as the essential blueprint from which Apple's engineers will design and build the chips, making its timely release a critical milestone.

Reshaping the Competitive Landscape

Currently, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the exclusive supplier for Apple's cutting-edge silicon chips used in iPhones, iPads, and Macs. While an Intel deal would mark a major strategic shift, Kuo downplayed its immediate threat to TSMC's dominance.

"In absolute terms, order volumes for the lowest-end M processor are relatively small and [will have] virtually no material impact on TSMC’s fundamentals or its technology leadership over the next several years," Kuo explained. He added that Apple is expected to remain "highly dependent" on TSMC for its more advanced processors.

A Strategic Win for Intel and US Manufacturing

Beyond the direct revenue, securing Apple as a customer would be a monumental victory for Intel's foundry ambitions. Paul Markham, investment director at GAM Global Equities, told CNBC that Apple is a "potential major reference customer whose presence validates Intel’s high-performance foundry offering."

Markham added, "If Intel pulls it off, there is potential to win higher volume and value business from Apple, for example CPU production for the iPhone, and win business from other large chip designers." The partnership would also align with the push from the U.S. government to bring critical semiconductor manufacturing back to American soil.