Wheat futures declined overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade as Ukraine completed its harvest, adding to global supplies.
According to Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture, farmers harvested 21.7 million metric tonnes of wheat, slightly exceeding the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) earlier forecast of 21.6 million tonnes. This harvest is, however, lower than last year's yield of 23 million tonnes.
The USDA's global wheat production forecast for the 2024/2025 marketing year stands at 798.3 million metric tonnes, a slight increase from the previous year's 789.7 million tonnes. However, consumption is also anticipated to rise, reaching 804 million tonnes, up from 798.8 million tonnes the year prior. Consequently, ending stockpiles are expected to decrease to 256.6 million tonnes, down from 262.4 million tonnes in the previous year.
While Ukraine's harvest provides some relief, a disappointing French crop is also influencing prices. FranceAgriMer reports that French farmers are expecting their smallest wheat harvest in nearly four decades due to heavy rainfall during the growing season.
Despite the increase in global wheat supplies, futures for September delivery fell by 5½¢ to $5.47 a bushel overnight. Kansas City futures also dipped, losing 3½¢ to $5.51½ a bushel.
In other commodity news, corn futures for December delivery rose by 1¢ to $3.93½ a bushel, while soybean futures for November delivery gained 5¢ to $9.62 a bushel. Soybean meal increased by $3.30 to $305.40 a short ton, while soy oil declined by 0.06¢ to 38.61¢ a pound.
Investor Sentiment Shifts in the Bean Market
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that money managers reduced their net short positions in soybeans to their lowest level in five weeks. As of 13 August, investors held a net short position of 154,801 futures contracts, down from 156,905 contracts the previous week. This represents the smallest bearish position since 2 July.
In contrast, investors increased their net short positions in corn to 253,047 futures contracts, up from 248,804 contracts a week earlier. This marks the end of a four-week streak of declining bearish positions for corn.
For wheat, speculators reduced their net short positions in hard red winter futures to 33,276 contracts, down from 35,697 contracts the previous week. This is the smallest such position since 18 June. Net short positions in soft red winter wheat were reported at 71,026 futures contracts, a slight decrease from 71,233 contracts a week earlier. This represents the smallest bearish position in just over a month.
The CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report provides insights into trader positions in futures markets. The report categorizes traders into three groups: commercial traders (hedging physical assets), noncommercial traders (money managers), and nonreportables (small speculators). A net-long position indicates a majority of traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position suggests more traders are betting on price declines.
Severe Storms Forecast in Parts of Nebraska
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a severe storm warning for parts of central and western Nebraska, with large hail and intense winds expected in the western Sandhills and Nebraska panhandle later today. Storms are forecast throughout the region until the middle of next week.
In addition, air quality alerts are in effect until midday in parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota due to smoky air. Individuals with sensitivities are advised to remain indoors and limit outdoor activities.
